Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med., Volume 156, Number 3, September 1997, 715-722

Prediction of Ozone-induced FEV₁ Changes
Effects of Concentration, Duration, and Ventilation

WILLIAM F. MCDONNELL, PAUL W. STEWART, SOLANGE ANDREONI, ELSTON SEAL Jr., HOWARD R. KEHRL, DONALD H. HORSTMAN, LAWRENCE J. FOLINSBEE, and MARJO V. SMITH

Clinical Research Branch, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park; Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill; and MVS Biomathematics, Raleigh, North Carolina

The purpose of this analysis of previously published data was to identify a model that accurately predicts the mean ozone-induced FEV₁ response of humans as a function of concentration (C), minute ventilation ( E), duration of exposure (T), and age. Healthy young adults (n = 485) were exposed for 2 h to one of six ozone concentrations while exercising at one of three levels. Candidate models were fitted to portions of the data and evaluated on the basis of their ability to predict the mean response of independent samples. A sigmoid-shaped model that is consistent with previous observations of ozone exposure-response (E-R) characteristics was identified and found to accurately predict the mean response with independent data. This model in a more general form may allow the prediction of responses under conditions of changing C and E. We did not find that response was more sensitive to changes in C than in E, nor did we find convincing evidence of an effect of body size upon response. We did find that response to ozone decreases with age. In summary, we have identified a biologically plausible, predictive model that quantifies the relationship between the ozone-induced change in FEV₁, and C, E, T, and age. McDonnell WF, Stewart PW, Andreoni S, Seal E, Jr., Kehrl HR, Horstman DH, Folinsbee LJ, Smith MV. Prediction of ozone-induced FEV₁ changes: effects of concentration, duration, and ventilation.

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